Overconfidence in Tournaments: Evidence from the Field

by Young Joon Park, Luís Santos-Pinto

ARTICLE | Theory and Decision | Vol. 69, 2010

Abstract

This paper uses a ﬁeld survey to investigate the quality of individuals’ beliefs of relative performance in tournaments. We consider two ﬁeld settings, poker and chess, which differ in the degree to which luck is a factor and also in the information that players have about the ability of the competition. We ﬁnd that poker players’ forecasts of relative performance are random guesses with an overestimation bias. Chess players also overestimate their relative performance but make informed guesses. We ﬁnd support for the “unskilled and unaware hypothesis” in chess: highskilled chess players make better forecasts than low-skilled chess players. Finally, we ﬁnd that chess players’ forecasts of relative performance are not efﬁcient.　

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