Abstract: From January 2021, Peking University HSBC think tank will regularly publish the Shenzhen economic analysis report based on the "nowcasting" method. The latest model (January 20, 2021) shows that the constant price GDP of Shenzhen increased by 6.3% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2020 and about 3.8% year-on-year in the whole year. This growth rate exceeded the national average growth rate (2.3%), leading the Greater Bay Area (urban agglomeration of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao).

The 14th five-year plan and the 2035 long-term goal of Shenzhen put forward that by 2035, the total economic output and per capita regional GDP of Shenzhen will double on the basis of 2020. To achieve this goal, the average annual economic growth rate of Shenzhen should reach about 4.8% in the next 15 years. In order to help Shenzhen achieve this planning goal, this series of reports will use nowcasting method to monitor Shenzhen's economy in real time and give high-frequency updated GDP forecast on the basis of regular analysis of Shenzhen's economic characteristics and situation, so as to provide more reference for policy regulation.

Full report: https://thinktank.phbs.pku.edu.cn/2021/jingjifenxi_0120/1.html