Abstract: From January 2021, Peking University HSBC think tank will regularly publish the Shenzhen economic analysis report based on the "nowcasting" method. The latest model (July 5, 2021) shows that the constant price GDP of Shenzhen in the first half of 2021 increased by 11.9% year-on-year. Compared with 2019, it increased by an average of 5.8% in 2020 and 2021. Compared with the two-year average of 4.6% in the first quarter of 2021, the growth rate has accelerated.

Based on the two-year average growth forecast of "9 + 2" urban agglomeration in Greater Bay Area, we believe that Huizhou (7.1%), Guangzhou (6.3%) and Shenzhen (5.8%) are the three fastest growing cities in the Bay Area in the first half of the year. The export demand faced by the leading industries of the three cities is still sustainable, and the driving force of infrastructure investment in Guangzhou and Huizhou is also strong in the first half of the year, accelerating the recovery process. In addition, driven by the obvious recovery of tourism and gambling industry, Hong Kong and Macao have recovered from the severe recession in 2020 (the year-on-year growth rate is - 6.1% and - 56.3% respectively). The average growth rate in the first half of 2021 is 2% and - 4.6% respectively compared with that in 2019.

Full report: https://thinktank.phbs.pku.edu.cn/2021/jingjifenxi_0724/38.html