Infomation Flows between the US and China's Agricultural Commodity Futures Markets -- Based on VAR_BEKK-Skew-t Model

by Qian Chen, Xin Weng

ARTICLE | Emerging Markets Finance and Trade | 2017

Abstract

The information flow in the volatility and the skewness of returns are two factors closely influences the hedging risks for cross-border transactions. This paper adopts a VAR-BEKK-MGARCH model with multivariate skew-t error terms to investigate the mean and volatility spillovers, while accounting for the potential skewness. The model is applied to real returns of corn, wheat and soybeans futures in US and China. The empirical results indicate the major role of US in information transmission, and the increasing volatility spillovers of China to US in highly marketised commodities and after trading structure changes. The analysis of skewness provides evidences for market inefficiency and implication on the investment decision and trading strategies.