Firm Expectations, Innovation and Growth
Using a large and representative panel survey of German firms, we document sizable forecast errors in employment growth which decline with firm age and which are related to R&D investment and innovation. Motivated by this evidence, we build an endogenous growth model with heterogeneous firms which learn their productivity from noisy signals, decide about innovation activity, employment, and exit. Aggregate ...
Leo Kaas, European University Institute
Thursday, March 26, 2026 | 10:30am-12:00pm | Room 421
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When Is Less Better Than More? Reductions in Firm Scale and Scope During Economic Downturns
Past research has paid little attention to why and how firms choose to reduce their size. Size reductions can come about either by a reduction in the scale of operations or a reduction in the scope of activities undertaken by the firm. We argue and show that firms are more likely to reduce the scale of their operations but less likely to reduce the scope of their activities in the event of an economic ...
Jay Anand, Ohio State University
Wednesday, March 18, 2026 | 10:00am-11:30am | Room 335
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Monetary Policy Without Borrowing: Capacity Constraints and Lumpy Investment
Understanding monetary transmission requires understanding which firms respond to interest-rate changes. We study how limited access to debt shapes firm-level transmission of monetary policy. Using monthly administrative records for all Chilean firms that file VAT returns, matched to a comprehensive credit registry, we combine firm outcomes with monetary policy surprises. We document substantial pass-...
Felipe Saffie, University of Virginia
Wednesday, March 18, 2026 | 9:00am-10:30am | Room 337
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Going Digital and Onchain: Tokenization, Ecosystem Development, and Wealth Dynamics
I start by discussing the facts and implications about distributed ledgers, stablecoins, real-world-asset tokenization, foundations of tokenomics, before delving into a theoretical framework for investigating the impact of digital platforms and crypto-tokens on the development and wealth inequality of a modern economy. Specifically, we build a continuous- time model of user heterogeneity, platform ...
Will Cong, Nanyang Technological University
Wednesday, March 18, 2026 | 2:00pm-4:00pm | Room 339
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Making Sovereign Debt Safe and Sustainable
An overview of part of my reseach agenda On the Design of a Financial Stability Fund. Starting from the fundamental design of a Fund that can absorb the Soverign Defaultable Debt of a country and transform it in a long-term state-contingent safe asset, making the debt sustainable (defaultfree) and providing risk-sharing and smooth consumption to the country, while preventing the Fund from having expected ...
Ramon Marimon, European University Institute
Monday, March 16, 2026 | 2:00pm-3:30pm | Room 337
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Working With, Through, and Against AI in Communication Research
Artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming the world, including the ways we do research. This talk examines how generative and analytical AI systems are reshaping the entire research process in communication science (and beyond), from literature review and hypothesis generation to research design, data collection, analysis, writing, and peer review. Using concrete examples from automated content ...
Jörg Matthes, University of Vienna, Austria
Wednesday, March 11, 2026 | 2:00pm-3:30pm | Room 333
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Breaking the Data Chain: The Ripple Effect of Data Sharing Restrictions on Financial Markets
Alternative data has reshaped financial markets, yet it arises outside traditional disclosure channels, beyond market participants’ control. We exploit Apple's App Tracking Transparency as a privacy-driven shock to alternative data generation, revealing a previously overlooked vulnerability in financial markets. The policy weakens the predictive power of mobile traffic for firm performance and mutual ...
Huan Tang, University of Pennsylvania
Wednesday, March 11, 2026 | 2:00pm-3:30pm | Room 335
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Government Venture Capital: Crowding-in or crowding-out?
We study how government venture capital (GVC) investment affects the financial and investment decisions of funded firms using firm-level data from a large commercial bank in China. We find that GVC funding is associated with higher bank borrowing and real investment for funded firms (crowding in rather than crowding out). We do not find the same results for private venture capital (PVC) investment....
Vincenzo Quadrini, University of Southern California
Wednesday, March 11, 2026 | 2:00pm-3:30pm | Room 337
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Firms, Training, and Development
We study how firms shape on-the-job training along the development path. Using data from over 100 countries, we document that smaller firms consistently offer fewer training opportunities to their workers. Administrative data from China and Mexico show that differences in productivity and labor shares are key determinants of this pattern. We then develop a general equilibrium model in which firm heterogeneity ...
Daniela Vidart, University of Connecticut
Wednesday, Jan 14, 2026 | 2:00pm-3:30pm | Room 337
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