Abstract: Despite the sharp decline in global economy and trade, China's export bucked the trend last year and has maintained a strong growth rate this year. In this round of global economic recovery, whether China's exports will be replaced by the products from other countries, leading to a quick drop in export, or they will maintain the rapid growth is a question of great concern to us. This paper finds that during the recovery of the global economy, China's export has not only maintained a rapid growth in scale but also expanded its share. Recently, China's export growth has showed the following characteristics: Firstly, the export volume has increased significantly while the price has not; Secondly, intermediate goods and capital goods have an increasing export growth rate; Thirdly, China's export to both developed and developing countries increases rapidly. Overall, the recovery has not led to a slowdown in China's exports through substitution effects. As developed countries are unable to retrieve their export share quickly and the recovery of other developing countries is even slower due to the epidemic, we expect that China's export still has the advantages and has a high probability of maintaining a stable increase.

Full report: https://thinktank.phbs.pku.edu.cn/2021/zhuantibaogao_0622/32.html