Working Papers-Peking University HSBC Business School(PHBS)

Predicting Recession Probabilities Using Term Spreads: New Evidence from a Machine Learning Approach

The literature on using yield curves to forecast recessions typically measures the term spread as the difference between the 10-year and the three-month Treasury rates

Jaehyuk Choi, Desheng Ge, Kyu Ho Kang, Sungbin Sohn

Working Paper | No. 20210101 |

Keywords: Yield Curve, Estimation risk, Density forecasting

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Does Outlawing Mandatory Retirement Reduce Public-Pension Benefit Claim?

Exploiting the 2011 abolishment of the mandatory-retirement provision that had allowed employers to force retirement of their 65-or-older employees in the UK, this paper estimates the effect of outlawing mandatory retirement on public-pension benefit

Insook Lee

Working Paper | No. 2020002 |

Keywords: mandatory retirement, public-pension claim, household head

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Idiosyncratic Risk and Acyclically Increasing Public Debt

Understanding observed cyclical properties of public debt is important The existing theories predict that public debt is only countercyclical (i e , increasing in recessions and decreasing in booms)

Insook Lee

Working Paper | No. 2020001 |

Keywords: Government Debt, Cyclicality of Public Debt, Idiosyncratic Risk, Acyclical Public Debt

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The Effect of Technological Imitation on Corporate Innovation: Evidence from US Patent Data

Technological imitation may play a crucial role in motivating firms to innovate However, theoretical predictions and empirical findings on the role of imitation have not yet reached a consensus

Hyun Joong Im, Janghoon Shon

| Working Paper | No. 2018002

Keywords: Corporate innovation, Technological imitation, Value of innovation, Innovation Cluster, Agglomerati

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ICT Use, Cognitive and Non-cognitive Abilities, and Wages: Micro Evidence from China

On determining wages in the labor market, recent scholarly attention has been drawn toward individual abilities and external technological environment, in addition to conventional human capital theory With the advancement of information and communication

Ting Ren, Xinguo Yu, Man Luo

| Working Paper | No. 2018005

Keywords: Human Capital, ICT Use, Cognitive and Non-cognitive Abilities, Wages

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Family Ties and Employment Behavior: The Role of Financial Intermediaries

We study the interaction effect of financial intermediaries and family ties on people’s labor participation and employment type in China Although the effects of financial intermediaries and family ties on employment behavior have already been studied

Ting Ren, Wenyuan Liu

| Working Paper | No. 2018004

Keywords: Employment Behavior, Employment Type, Family Ties, Financial Intermediaries, Labor Participation

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Coping with Air Pollution: The Role of Cognitive and Non-cognitive Abilities on Mental Health

Considered as a key component of human capital, mental health has drawn substantial scholarly attention for its effect on people’s health status and economic outcome When facing the challenge of stress, people’s heterogeneity in cognitive ability

Ting Ren, Xinguo Yu, Weiwei Yang

| Working Paper | No. 2018003

Keywords: Air Pollution, Cognitive Ability, Non-cognitive Ability, Mental Health

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Asymmetric peer effects in capital structure dynamics

Using a semiparametric smooth-coefficient partial adjustment model, this study finds evidence for asymmetric peer effects on capital structure adjustment speeds

Hyun Joong Im

| Working Paper | No. 2018001

Keywords: Peer effects, Capital structure, Speed of adjustment, Leverage dynamics

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The Effect of Stock Liquidity on Debt-Equity Choices

We examine the effect of stock liquidity on a firm’s choice between debt and equity when funding its investment activities

William Cheung, Hyun Joong Im, and Bohui Zhang

| Working Paper | No. 2017003

Keywords: Stock liquidity, Debt issuance, Equity issuance, Capital structure

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The Effect of Technological Imitation on Corporate Innovation: Evidence from US Patent Data

Using US patent data for the period 1977–2005, we find that there are inverted-Ushaped relationships between the degree of industry-level technological imitation and industry-level innovation activities and between the degree of industry-level

Hyun Joong Im, Yang Liu and Janghoon Shon

Working Paper | No. 2017002 |

Keywords: Corporate innovation, Technological imitation, Value of innovation

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