Predicting Recession Probabilities Using Term Spreads: New Evidence from a Machine Learning Approach

Author(s)
The literature on using yield curves to forecast recessions typically measures the term spread as the difference between the 10-year and the three-month Treasury rates

Does Outlawing Mandatory Retirement Reduce Public-Pension Benefit Claim?

Author(s)
Exploiting the 2011 abolishment of the mandatory-retirement provision that had allowed employers to force retirement of their 65-or-older employees in the UK, this paper estimates the effect of outlawing mandatory retirement on public-pension benefit

Idiosyncratic Risk and Acyclically Increasing Public Debt

Author(s)
Understanding observed cyclical properties of public debt is important The existing theories predict that public debt is only countercyclical (i e , increasing in recessions and decreasing in booms)

The Effect of Technological Imitation on Corporate Innovation: Evidence from US Patent Data

Author(s)
Technological imitation may play a crucial role in motivating firms to innovate However, theoretical predictions and empirical findings on the role of imitation have not yet reached a consensus

ICT Use, Cognitive and Non-cognitive Abilities, and Wages: Micro Evidence from China

Author(s)
On determining wages in the labor market, recent scholarly attention has been drawn toward individual abilities and external technological environment, in addition to conventional human capital theory With the advancement of information and communication

Family Ties and Employment Behavior: The Role of Financial Intermediaries

Author(s)
We study the interaction effect of financial intermediaries and family ties on people’s labor participation and employment type in China Although the effects of financial intermediaries and family ties on employment behavior have already been studied

Coping with Air Pollution: The Role of Cognitive and Non-cognitive Abilities on Mental Health

Author(s)
Considered as a key component of human capital, mental health has drawn substantial scholarly attention for its effect on people’s health status and economic outcome When facing the challenge of stress, people’s heterogeneity in cognitive ability

Asymmetric peer effects in capital structure dynamics

Author(s)
Using a semiparametric smooth-coefficient partial adjustment model, this study finds evidence for asymmetric peer effects on capital structure adjustment speeds

The Effect of Stock Liquidity on Debt-Equity Choices

Author(s)
We examine the effect of stock liquidity on a firm’s choice between debt and equity when funding its investment activities

The Effect of Technological Imitation on Corporate Innovation: Evidence from US Patent Data

Author(s)
Using US patent data for the period 1977–2005, we find that there are inverted-Ushaped relationships between the degree of industry-level technological imitation and industry-level innovation activities and between the degree of industry-level