Abstract: From January 2021, Peking University HSBC think tank will regularly publish the Shenzhen economic analysis report based on the "nowcasting" method. The latest analysis (April 1, 2021) shows that in the first quarter of 2021, Shenzhen's GDP increased by 19.1% year-on-year, with an average growth of 5.5% in two years compared with 2019. Excluding the impact of low base, the actual growth rate of 5.5% was close to that in the second half of last year, which was faster than that in the fourth quarter of last year.

In the first quarter of 2021, the local Chinese new year brought about the improvement of consumption and the high export growth driven by external demand, which partially smoothed the seasonal fluctuations of Shenzhen's economy. It is expected that the total demand of us and European countries will continue to recover under the stimulus policies, and the demand is mainly concentrated in Shenzhen's competitive industries such as information technology equipment investment and durable goods consumption, which will drive Shenzhen's exports to maintain a high outlook in the first half of 2021. However, in the second half of the year, with the recovery of domestic production and international industrial supply chain in European and American countries and the reduction of the demand for epidemic prevention materials, Shenzhen's exports may be affected to some extent.

Full report: https://thinktank.phbs.pku.edu.cn/2021/jingjifenxi_0402/24.html